Blog | Dunham

Macro 11/14/2025

The Treasury’s Liquidity Flood, CEO Euphoria, and a $142 Trillion Inflation Surge

The Treasury’s cash pile near $950 billion is about to gush back into markets, flooding the system with liquidity. As CEOs sound their most optimis...

Macro 11/7/2025

Bank Stress Builds, Housing Locks Out a Generation, and Jobs Freeze Up

The Fed quietly injected $125B into banks as liquidity strains deepen, housing locks out a generation of buyers, and layoffs surge to 20-year highs...

Macro 10/31/2025

Is the AI Bubble Primed To Burst? These Three Things Show Trouble Ahead

AI’s rise has sparked record spending, soaring valuations, and global shortages—but history shows every boom plants the seeds of its own decline. F...

Macro 10/17/2025

China vs. the E.U.: The Trade War Nobody Is Talking About (Yet)

China’s export surge to Europe is fueling new tariffs, trade probes, and rising tensions. With the E.U.’s deficit topping €300 billion, Brussels is...

Macro 10/3/2025

Bank Reserves Are Shrinking — Is a Liquidity Crunch Next?

U.S. bank reserves are shrinking at their fastest pace in years — slipping below $3 trillion and draining liquidity from the system. History shows ...

Dunham Deep Dive 9/5/2025

Car Debt Illusion, U.K. Bond Rout, & China’s Banking Squeeze

Seven-year auto loans hit a record 21.6% of U.S. financing, the U.K. faces a gilt yield surge not seen since 1998, and Chinese banks are bleeding m...

Macro 8/29/2025

Debt Cycles 102: How Debt Fueled History’s Greatest Bubbles and Market Crashes

Debt Cycles 102 explores how debt fueled some of history’s biggest bubbles — from tulips to railroads. Different assets, same story: easy credit, s...

Dunham Deep Dive 8/22/2025

Liquidity Is Evaporating, AI’s Building Boom, & China’s Job Market Crumbles

Liquidity buffers are vanishing as the Fed’s reverse repo facility drains, AI data centers surge past offices in construction, and China’s job mark...

Dunham Deep Dive 8/8/2025

Job Market Illusions, Hong Kong’s Dollar Issue, & the Stagflation Threat Ahead

Unemployment looks low—but hidden numbers tell another story. Hong Kong’s dollar peg is tested amid liquidity injections, raising asset risks. Mean...

Dunham Deep Dive 8/1/2025

The Frankenstein GDP Report, Approaching Volatility Season, and a Frozen Housing Market

Q2 GDP rose 3%—but the math hides a softer economy, with falling imports masking weak consumer and business activity. Markets remain oddly calm ahe...

Macro 7/11/2025

Deficits 101: What They Are, Why They Matter, and How They Impact an Economy

With record deficits dominating headlines, understanding the difference between fiscal and trade deficits is essential. This piece unpacks how each...