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The FDA's acceptance of Loyal's longevity drugs for dogs last week signals a breakthrough moment in our understanding of aging biology. (!)
As LOY-002 targets age-related metabolic dysfunction in senior dogs, similar mechanisms could be addressed in humans. The key is that these are not just lifespan extensions but quality-of-life improvements.
Loyal's measurement of dogs' well-being throughout the STAY clinical trial reflects the essential goal of extending "healthspan" alongside lifespan.
This approach mirrors my premise in the recently published white paper, "Is Our Industry Prepared for Retirees' Longer Lifespans?"
Could the regulatory pathway Loyal is establishing serve as a template for human anti-aging treatments?
As dogs live healthier lives through these innovative treatments, we are gaining valuable insights that may help humans reach longer life spans while maintaining cognitive function, physical mobility, and overall wellness, making those extended years worth living.
Here is an excerpt from the Whitepaper. To read the full paper, click here.
Whitepaper Section One: Is Our Industry Prepared for Retiree’s Longer Lifespans?
Imagine if you were 120 years old.
When I first read an article suggesting that within the next 50 years, it will not be uncommon for people to live to be 120 or even 130 years old, I was horrified.
Why would I ever want to do that?
My feelings about living to that age include decades of immobility, doctors, lots of pills, no hair, pain, and all the other attributes I associate with being “old.” I felt I would burden my children and not add much value to their lives, not because I did not want to, but because I simply could not.
As I read the article further, I learned about the excellent quality of life available at those ages. It spoke about advancements in science and genetics, making living at that age enjoyable, active, and fulfilling. I felt better about the prospects of this proverbial fountain of youth, but it got me thinking.
If I lived that long, while physically I might live a comfortable life, would I be ready financially? My retirement planning thus far bore little resemblance to this brave new world I was facing.
I started thinking of the effects of living 40 to 50 years past retirement, and it did not take long for the horror of what even a 2% inflation rate compounding over that longer period would have on my retirement.
I was amused when I started thinking about the amount of assets I would need for food in retirement until that number seemed to be over $2.7 million for both me and my wife.
At this moment, my thoughts turned to retirement portfolios and traditional investment wisdom. Throughout my career, the financial services industry has taught us that portfolios should become more conservative as clients age. The premise was sound because we wanted to protect assets when clients needed them most.
However, this thinking was based on retirements lasting two or three decades. When examining portfolios that must last a retirement spanning five or six decades, our analysis revealed something startling. An overly conservative investment approach could be as damaging to portfolio longevity as poor market returns early in retirement.
This discovery challenges our fundamental understanding of sequence risk. The industry has long focused on protecting portfolios from market downturns in early retirement years. Yet our research shows that insufficient returns over extended periods create their own form of sequence risk. One that slowly but inevitably depletes retirement resources.
I examined various portfolio allocations across different time horizons to quantify this effect. The results proved concerning. Portfolios structured according to traditional conservative allocation models showed high probabilities of depletion well before these extended retirement periods concluded.
A retirement investment paradox emerged, and an inflation sequence risk that could not be ignored.
This realization led us to conduct extensive research on retirement in this new paradigm. Our findings suggest reconsidering some retirement planning assumptions and exploring why traditional approaches may not fully support retirees' long-term financial security.
This paper explores this modern retirement paradigm and examines historical data and inflation scenarios. We illustrate why traditional approaches to retirement planning may need fundamental reconsideration to address these evolving challenges effectively.
Could the First Person to Live to be 150 Years Old be Alive Today?
The Bet
In 2000, Steven Austad, a biogerontologist known for his research on aging, made a famous bet with fellow scientist Jay Olshansky about human longevity. The bet was about whether someone born before 2001 would live to be 150 by the year 2150. (1)
The bet was for $500 in 2000, which was then invested with the idea that it would grow to about $500 million by 2150 and be inherited by their heirs. Austad bet that someone alive in 2000 would live to be 150 by 2150, while Olshansky bet against this possibility.
Austad's optimism was partly based on the rapid progress in understanding the biology of aging and potential interventions to slow or, even more remarkably, reverse it.
But Austad is not alone.
Lifespan: Why We Age-and Why We Don't Have To
In his iconic 2019 book, Lifespan: Why We Age-and Why We Don't Have To, David A. Sinclair, PhD, AO, appears to agree with Austad. Sinclair, professor of genetics at Harvard Medical School and director of the Paul F. Glenn Center of Aging Research at Harvard, says:
“And so most of us, when we think about living to 100, still think ‘God forbid,’ because we’ve seen what those final decades look like, and for most people, most of the time, they don’t look appealing at all. Ventilators and drug cocktails. Broken hips and diapers. Chemotherapy and radiation. Surgery after surgery after surgery. And hospital bills; my God, the hospital bills.”
He goes on to say:
“But what if it didn’t have to be that way? What if we could be younger longer? Not years longer but decades longer. What if those final years didn’t look so terribly different from the years that came before them? And what if, by saving ourselves, we could also save the world?”
Sinclair presents a revolutionary perspective on aging, challenging the historical view of aging as an inevitable process he compares to changing seasons. Sinclair argues that aging should be seen as a treatable condition, potentially easier to address than complex diseases like cancer.
He suggests that universal regulators of aging exist across species, from yeast to humans, and can be influenced by interventions such as NMN supplementation, vigorous exercise, or dietary changes. Drawing parallels to historical medical breakthroughs like germ theory and vaccinations, Sinclair suggests that understanding aging mechanics could significantly extend human health and lifespan. He proposes that with the right approach, the reversal or significant slowing of aging might be more achievable than previously thought.
Dario Amodei – CEO of Anthropic
In 2024, Dario Amodei published an extensive 15,000-word essay titled "Machines of Loving Grace: How AI Could Transform the World for the Better." Amodei serves as CEO of Anthropic, a San Francisco-based company focused on AI safety and research that aims to develop reliable, beneficial AI systems.
In his essay, Amodei presented bold predictions about artificial intelligence's potential impact on human longevity and health. He projected that "powerful AI" would eliminate most diseases, including cancers and Alzheimer's, within 7-12 years of its development.
Additionally, he anticipated AI would create breakthrough treatments for mental health conditions within 5-10 years. According to Amodei, these medical advances would ultimately lead to humans living significantly longer lives, with average lifespans potentially reaching 150 years, double the current life expectancy.
These predictions are consistent with emerging trends in longevity research and biomedical AI applications. Scientists at institutions like Harvard Medical School and the Buck Institute for Research on Aging have already demonstrated success in reversing aging in mice through genetic and cellular manipulation.
Major technology companies and research institutions are investing billions in AI-powered drug discovery and personalized medicine platforms. The convergence of artificial intelligence, genetic engineering, and regenerative medicine could indeed revolutionize human health and lifespan.
Morgan Stanley Research
In its May 22, 2024, research report, The New Technologies for Longer, Healthier Lives, Morgan Stanley Research highlights 10 ”longshot” technologies poised to significantly extend human lifespans and improve quality of life in the coming decades. These innovations range from AI-driven drug discovery and reproductive technologies to bioprinting for organ transplants and cell reprogramming for personalized medicine.
The report suggests that some emerging therapies could extend the human health span by 10% to 15% in the near future, potentially adding decades to life expectancy.
These advancements aim not just at treating diseases but at fundamentally altering the aging process itself.
The implications of these technologies extend beyond health, potentially reshaping economic landscapes and investment opportunities. From a projected $105 billion market for obesity drugs by 2030 to a potential $140 billion market for targeted cancer therapies, these innovations promise to transform multiple fields.
While many of these technologies are still in the early stages and face regulatory challenges, their development signals a paradigm shift in how we approach aging and longevity, with far-reaching consequences for society, healthcare, and the global economy.
Financial Services Industry in Need of a Response
The financial services industry remains remarkably unprepared for the possibility of 120 - 150-year lifespans, creating potential economic devastation for future centenarians. Traditional retirement planning models, pension systems, and social security frameworks are still built around outdated assumptions of 80-90-year lifespans and retirement at age 65.
Investment firms generally continue to recommend portfolio allocations and withdrawal rates that would leave individuals financially destitute if they lived to be over 100 years old.
Most concerning is that personal retirement savings strategies generally promoted by financial advisors typically aim to sustain retirees for only 20-30 years post-retirement, potentially meaning 40+ years of life without adequate financial resources. The implications of this systemic unpreparedness will affect millions of people, and they could outlive their retirement savings by decades, creating an unprecedented economic and social crisis.
Social security systems worldwide, already strained, could collapse under the weight of supporting a population living twice as long as initially designed. Without immediate and dramatic reformation of financial planning frameworks, extended human longevity could transform from a scientific triumph into an economic disaster.
Click here for full white paper.
Sources:
- Second drug for canine healthy lifespan extension receives FDA support, By Kristen Coppock Crossley, MA, February 26, 2025, https://www.dvm360.com/view/second-drug-for-canine-healthy-lifespan-extension-receives-fda-support
Disclosures:
This communication is general in nature and provided for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered or relied upon as legal, tax or investment advice or an investment recommendation, or as a substitute for legal or tax counsel. Any investment products or services named herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered an offer to buy or sell, or an investment recommendation for, any specific security, strategy or investment product or service. Always consult a qualified professional or your own independent financial professional for personalized advice or investment recommendations tailored to your specific goals, individual situation, and risk tolerance.
All examples are hypothetical and are for illustrative purposes only.
Dunham & Associates Investment Counsel, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser and Broker/Dealer. Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services and securities offered through Dunham & Associates Investment Counsel, Inc.