In our Calm, Steady, and Common Sense series, we endeavor to bring you information to help you through the current market.
Today, I am looking at the Coronavirus as the market is taking a tumble. As I have mentioned in the past, I am not a doctor, and it would be irresponsible of me to handicap the severity of the Coronavirus.
However, Worldometer is an organization I have seen referenced a number of times in various articles I have read. It is run by an international team of developers, researchers, and volunteers, with the goal of making world statistics available and, “in a thought-provoking and time-relevant format to a wide audience around the world.“
Below are three data points that I found on their website.
Active Cases, or, “currently infected cases”, measures the number of current patients infected with the virus. It removes people who have died or people who have recovered from the virus.
On February 17, the number of active cases peaked at 58,747, and has declined by over 20,000 cases since then. As of March 4th, that number stood at 38,498.
Serious and Critical Cases
The number of Serious and Critical Cases has also declined from 12,057 on February 18 to 6,420 cases on March 4.
Growth Factor of Daily New Cases
Growth Factor looks at the current day’s new cases and divides that by the number of cases from the previous day. A growth factor of 1 or more would indicate an increase in cases and a number less than 1 indicates a decline in cases.
The March 4 number was at 0.89, but this statistic seems to be constantly wandering above and below 1. I do not know how much credence we can place on the March number other than to say that it is, again, under 1.
If you would like to see the Dunham white paper, Perhaps the Best Sleep Comes from What is Keeping you Awake, which discusses thoughts on market declines, please click here.
As always, if you would like to speak to me, I can be reached at (858) 964 – 0500.