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Key Takeaways:

• Not All Deficits Are the Same: Fiscal deficits stem from government overspending; trade deficits reflect an imbalance between imports and exports — and each has distinct causes and consequences.
  
  
• Why Deficits Matter: Persistent fiscal deficits raise debt levels, crowd out private investment, and can fuel inflation. Large trade deficits may signal competitiveness issues or currency pressure, despite attracting foreign capital.
  
  
• The Twin Deficit Problem: When a country runs both large fiscal and trade deficits (like the U.S.), it becomes more reliant on foreign capital — raising risks of currency weakness, inflation, and reduced policy flexibility.
  
  
• The U.S. Is Unique — For Now: As the issuer of the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. enjoys a longer leash than emerging markets, but global trust in the dollar isn’t guaranteed forever.
  
  
• Deficits Are Economic Signals: They’re not inherently good or bad — but they offer crucial insight into a nation’s economic health, policymaking discipline, and future market stability.

With headlines warning of “record deficits” and “unsustainable debt,” it’s easy to tune it all out. But now the noise is getting louder.

President Trump has signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) - a sweeping deficit-financed package with permanent tax cuts and expanded spending. It’s projected to add nearly $3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade at current GDP growth rates¹.

At the same time, he’s pushing a “MAGA for Exports” agenda — aiming to shrink America’s trade deficit and bring manufacturing back home via tariffs.

• I wrote more on the pros and cons for Trump’s tariffs in “Trump’s Tariff Policy Explained: Winners, Losers & its Global Impact.”

The result is a striking contradiction: government spending is surging while the country tries to export more and import less. One foot on the gas, the other on the brakes.

It’s a reminder that not all deficits are created equal — and they don’t always move in the same direction.

To understand what’s really at stake, let’s break down what a deficit is, why it matters, and how it affects the economy, markets, and policymakers.

What Is a Deficit?

A deficit happens when spending exceeds income. Whether it’s a household, a business, or a government — it means you're living beyond your means.

And for countries, there are two major types of deficits you’ll hear about:

• Fiscal Deficits: When the government’s spending outpaced its revenues.
  
  
• Trade Deficits: When a country imports more goods and services than it exports.

Keep this in mind when you hear someone say, “The deficit is exploding.”

Because the smart question is, “Which one are you talking about?”

The Fiscal Deficit: When Government Outspends Itself

A fiscal deficit occurs when government spending essentially exceeds its taxes.

• Put simply, the Fiscal Deficit = Government Spending – Tax Revenue

To cover the gap - governments issue debt (bonds). And over time, that builds up into the national debt. And if that debt grows faster than the economy, it becomes a serious risk.

For instance, the 2024 deficit hit $1.83 trillion — continuing a years-long streak of trillion-dollar shortfalls². This problem is only compounding as the interest on the old debt continually adds to the new debt.

To put this into perspective - according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)³ – Interest alone on the debt is now the fastest-growing line item in the federal budget - projected to surpass $1 trillion annually by 2026 - and nearly $1.8 trillion by 2035. 

Figure 1: St. Louis Federal Reserve, July 2025

Why It Matters: 3 Key Risks of Large Fiscal Deficits

1. Crowding Out Private Borrowers: When the government floods the market with bonds, investors buy. But in doing so, the government acts like a giant suction pump - pulling money out of the private sector. Thus, to compete for what’s left, the private sector has to raise interest rates to attract money towards them. But that makes it more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow - leading to fewer business investments, slower hiring, and more expensive mortgages, car loans, and credit.

• Put simply, the government hogs the money pool, leaving less for everyone else

2. Fueling Inflation: Big deficits mean more money flowing into the economy, as the government spends more than it pulls back in through taxes. That kind of stimulus can overheat demand - especially when supply can’t keep up - because when more dollars chase the same amount of goods, prices rise. Add in the effects of currency debasement from too many dollars sloshing around, and you’ve got a recipe for persistent inflation.

• Sound familiar? Think back to the massive COVID-19 stimulus — trillions pumped into the economy, followed by a sharp rise in inflation^4.

3. Ugly Market Perception: If investors start doubting a country’s ability to manage or repay its debt, they demand higher interest rates to compensate for the risk — or they pull their money out entirely.

This can trigger a chain reaction where borrowing costs soar, the currency weakens as capital flees, growth sinks, and the overall debt burdens grow even more. It becomes a vicious cycle. More debt = higher interest rates = even more borrowing = repeat.

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Fiscal Deficits

Now, keep in mind that not all deficits are bad. In fact, they’re often necessary during economic downturns.

See, governments aren’t households. They don’t need to balance the books each month. They can keep borrowing - and if needed, print money (you or I would go to jail for that). But sovereign nations - especially those that have a reserve currency (aka the dollar, euro, yen, etc.) - have more tools at their disposal when it comes to deficits.

So, let’s recap the good, the bad, and the ugly of fiscal deficits. . .

The Good: In a recession, deficits can act as a lifeline - jumpstarting demand, lifting employment, and supporting recovery when the private sector pulls back. This “counter-cyclical” approach often leads to higher asset prices, job creation, and economic recovery as the government pumps money into the system.

The Bad: Larger deficits mean more money flowing through the system - which can lead also to consumer inflation, especially if supply chains are tight.

• This means higher grocery bills, rent, and energy costs for everyday people.

A growing deficit can also signal a weak private economy - one that’s relying more on government spending and jobs to fuel growth. Over time, this dependence can lead to a cycle where growth requires ever more borrowing or monetary expansion, increasing the risk of long-term stagnation or debt-driven instability.

• This is what worries me currently, since we’re running massive "crisis level" deficits at a time when the economy is supposed to be “healthy”.

The Ugly: If debt and deficits spiral out of control, and central banks resort to printing money to plug in the gaps - thus currency collapse becomes a real risk, absolutely crushing the entire economy (since currencies are the lifeblood of trade and everyday life).

• That’s why sustained, uncontrolled deficit spending is usually only seen in extreme cases - like during wars or major economic shocks. Because too much can be ruinous.
  
  

The Trade Deficit: When a Country Buys More Than It Sell

Now that we’ve covered fiscal deficits, let’s look at trade deficits — when a country imports more goods and services than it exports. In broader terms, it’s also called a current account deficit.

• Put simply, the Trade Deficit = Imports – Exports

Take the U.S., for example. It consistently has one of the largest trade deficits in the world - a trend that’s persisted for more than three decades. In fact, in March 2025, the U.S. posted a record-high trade deficit of roughly $138 billion (before recovering to the post COVID average rang).

Figure 2: St. Louis Federal Reserve, July 2025

Why It Matters

1. Currency Pressure: Persistent trade deficits can weaken a country’s currency over time. Why? Because more domestic currency flows abroad to pay for imports - increasing supply and thus lowering its value.

2. Competitiveness: A large trade deficit can be a red flag for deeper structural issues - like declining productivity or a weakened manufacturing sector.

I’ve written more on this in “The Perks, Pitfalls, and Global Risk of a Weaker U.S. Dollar.”

3. Capital Inflows: On the flip side, countries with trade deficits often attract foreign investment to balance the books. What do I mean by “balance the books?” Well, here’s how it works:

• When the U.S. buys more from the world than it sells, other countries end up with U.S. dollars (aka a $100 U.S. trade deficit = a $100 global trade surplus; they have to balance out)
  
  
• Those dollars often flow back into the U.S. - through purchases of U.S. stocks, real estate, or government bonds.
  
  
• This keeps capital flowing into U.S. markets, even as we run trade deficits.

Remember: Every trade deficit is someone else’s surplus. So, while the U.S. may be “spending more abroad,” it’s another way of saying “the U.S. is the world’s biggest buyer — driving global growth.” And much of that money boomerangs back into our economy through capital inflows — into U.S. stocks, bonds, and real estate.

That’s why the U.S. can run large trade deficits and still remain a magnet for global flows (aka the rest of the world depends on selling to us, which we pay for in U.S. dollars, which they then invest back into the U.S.)

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of a Trade Deficit

And just like fiscal deficits, not all trade deficits are bad. Similarly, context is everything.

The Good: A trade deficit may signal a strong domestic economy and high consumer demand, hence we’re gobbling up even more than we produce. It can also mean we’re receiving valuable foreign investment, especially if the dollar is strong.

The Bad: A persistent deficit can point to underlying weaknesses — like loss of competitiveness, overreliance on foreign money, or shrinking manufacturing. Worse is that it can also be exploited geopolitically — as in the case of countries like China, which intentionally weaken their currencies to keep the U.S. dollar strong. This strategy makes their exports cheaper and keeps Americans consuming more of their goods — reinforcing the imbalance.

• I wrote about this more in my piece, “The Coming Global Monetary Reset: What History Tells Us and What Might Be Next”

The Ugly: When a trade deficit combines with rising national debt, a weakening currency, and capital flight, it can trigger real economic instability — especially in emerging markets with fragile financial systems.

• For the U.S., the risks are more structural than sudden. Over time, persistent trade imbalances can hollow out key industries as manufacturing moves overseas. Jobs are cut at home as cheap imports lead to businesses closing. To maintain living standards, households may take on more debt, borrowing to keep up their spending (which we’ve seen since the 2000s).

Meanwhile, domestic producers lose ground abroad, eroding export strength and long-term competitiveness. Left unchecked, these imbalances don’t just dent the economy — they weaken its very foundation, even in a country as large and resilient as the United States (and every major economy before it throughout history).

They also give foreign investors growing claims on U.S. assets. Each time the U.S. runs a trade deficit, dollars flow abroad - and many return to buy American stocks, bonds, real estate, and companies.

Over time, this builds up in the Net International Investment Position (NIIP) - basically a measure of what the world owns of the U.S. vs. what the U.S. owns abroad.

Figure 3: St. Louis Federal Reserve, July 2025

That balance is now deep in the red at –$24.6 trillion, reflecting decades of borrowing and selling to finance imports.

The Twin Deficits: When Two Red Flags Fly at Once

See, many countries - like Germany, Japan, China, and South Korea — often run fiscal deficits while maintaining trade surpluses – thus cushioning the impact of public spending.

• Their strong export sectors bring in foreign earnings, reducing reliance on external borrowing and helping to stabilize their currencies.

For example, Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio of any developed country - sitting at a whopping ~240%⁵ - meaning its government debt is more than 2.4 times the size of its entire economy (nearly double the U.S. ratio). And yet, Japan still runs consistent trade surpluses.

But what happens when both sides of the ledger are in the red?

That’s what economists call the twin deficit problem - aka when a country is overspending at home and over-importing from abroad.

And right now, the United States is doing both.

Figure 4: CEIC, WorldBank, July 2025

Why the Twin Deficit Is a Problem

1. Double Dependence on Foreign Capital: Running both a fiscal and trade deficit means a country is borrowing at home to fund spending and abroad to pay for imports. Thus it relies heavily on foreign investors to plug both gaps

2. Vulnerability to Shocks: If investors lose confidence, capital flows can reverse — causing interest rates to spike, the currency to fall, and growth to slow. It leaves little room for policy flexibility.

3. Currency Weakness & Inflation: More money flowing out than in puts downward pressure on the currency. A weaker currency makes imports more expensive, fueling inflation and hurting consumers.

Why the U.S. Can Run Twin Deficits

That said, the U.S. is in a very different position than a country like Argentina or Turkey. Why? Because the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency. That means governments, central banks, and investors around the world use dollars to trade, save, and invest.

So even when the U.S. runs large fiscal and trade deficits, there’s usually no shortage of buyers for U.S. debt or demand for dollar-based assets like Treasury bonds, real estate, and stocks. The world still trusts the dollar — and that trust gives the U.S. a longer leash.

But emerging markets don’t get that luxury. . .

Countries like Argentina or Turkey often borrow in foreign currencies — usually dollars or euros — or run trade surpluses to earn them. But since they can’t print those currencies, they’re forced to either export more or borrow more just to stay afloat. Thus if they’re running a twin deficit, those dollar inflows dry up and the results can be brutal – like currency crashes, debt defaults, and inflation spikes.

• I wrote about this conundrum last year in “What Is a Dollar Shortage? Why It’s a Growing Threat to the World Economy.”

The U.S., by contrast, can borrow in its own currency, which gives it far more breathing room — at least for now.

Think of this this way:

• The U.S. is like a popular store that can run a tab with its suppliers — and even with itself. Everyone wants their business, so it can afford to spend more than it earns and still get favorable credit terms.
  
  
• Countries like Argentina or Turkey are more like street vendors. If they want dollars, they need to sell something first — and keep selling. Otherwise, they have to borrow. No sales or credit? No dollars. And if confidence fades, customers and lenders disappear, and the cash dries up fast.

Final Thoughts: Deficits Aren’t Just Numbers — They’re Signals

Whether it’s fiscal or trade, a deficit is more than a budget imbalance — it’s a signal about how a nation spends, produces, trades, and grows.

On their own, deficits can be tools. But unchecked or poorly timed - they become liabilities. And when both fiscal and trade deficits grow together — as the U.S. is seeing now — it can signal a real problem.

That’s why understanding deficits isn’t just for economists. It’s essential for investors, policymakers, manufacturers, and anyone trying to make sense of where the economy might be headed next.

Because the truth is, it’s not just about how much we owe — it’s about how long the world is willing to keep lending. Or how long the U.S. can subsidize global consumption at the expense of our own economy.

But as always, time will tell.

FAQ:

What is the difference between a fiscal deficit and a trade deficit?
A fiscal deficit occurs when a government spends more than it collects in taxes. A trade deficit happens when a country imports more goods and services than it exports. One is about domestic budgets, whereas the other is about global trade.

Why are U.S. deficits such a big deal in 2025?
With the U.S. running both large fiscal and trade deficits, there’s rising concern about inflation, debt sustainability, and foreign capital reliance. These “twin deficits” increase the risk of currency weakness and reduced policy flexibility. Meanwhile, Trump's attempt at closing the trade deficit will have global implications.

Are deficits always bad?
Not necessarily. In downturns, fiscal deficits can help jumpstart the economy. And trade deficits can attract foreign capital. But over time, persistent deficits can strain growth, raise interest rates, and spark instability — especially when left unchecked.

What is the ‘twin deficit’ problem?
It refers to a situation where a country runs both a fiscal and trade deficit at the same time. This makes the country more dependent on foreign capital and vulnerable to interest rate shocks, capital flight, and inflation.

Why can the U.S. run large deficits without immediate crisis?
The U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency. That gives the U.S. more borrowing flexibility and keeps demand high for U.S. debt. But this advantage isn’t guaranteed forever — and overuse may erode long-term global trust.

Sources:

1. Big Beautiful Bill Impact: US Deficit & Economy | Tax Foundation
2. Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] (FYFSD) | FRED | St. Louis Fed
3. Interest on the Debt to Grow Past $1 Trillion Next Year-2025-02-06
4. Covid Money Tracker
5. Visualizing Government Debt-to-GDP Around the World

Disclosures:

This communication is general in nature and provided for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered or relied upon as legal, tax or investment advice or an investment recommendation, or as a substitute for legal or tax counsel. Any investment products or services named herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered an offer to buy or sell, or an investment recommendation for, any specific security, strategy or investment product or service. Always consult a qualified professional or your own independent financial professional for personalized advice or investment recommendations tailored to your specific goals, individual situation, and risk tolerance. All examples are hypothetical and are for illustrative purposes only.

Information contained in the materials included is believed to be from reliable sources, but no representations or guarantees are made as to the accuracy or completeness of information. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

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